By Outer Banks Voice on May 11, 2020
Speaking during a May 11 media briefing, North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services Secretary (NCDHHS) Mandy Cohen unveiled a new number designed to further track and explain the trajectory of the COVID-19 virus. Acknowledging that this is an inexact science, she estimated that the number of recovered North Carolina COVID-19 patients is currently 9,115. As of May 11, there have 15,045 reported cases overall.
This passage from the NCDHHS website tries to explain the methodology for counting those who have recovered.
“The estimated number of patients presumed to be recovered from symptoms from COVID-19 is used in combination with other measures to provide a general sense of how many people with COVID-19 have likely recovered from symptoms. North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS) estimates a median time to recovery of 14 days from the date of specimen collection for non-fatal COVID-19 cases who were not hospitalized, or if hospitalization status is unknown. The estimated median recovery time is 28 days from the date of specimen collection for hospitalized non-fatal COVID-19 cases. Estimates are used since patient-specific data on the actual time to resolution of all symptoms are not available for all COVID-19 cases in North Carolina.”
In response to several reporters’ questions about the number of recovered people, Cohen said that, “We have been very clear. This is an estimate…This is our best attempt at this given the squishiness of these things.”