Isaias track uncertain, but ‘increasing confidence’ we will see impacts

By on August 1, 2020

NWS Newport/Morehead 

(National Weather Service)

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Newport/Morehead City has issued a 6 a.m. update on Aug. 1 on the status of Hurricane Isaias. Among the key points, the NWS says there is “increasing confidence we will see impacts from Isaias,” but that “specific impacts [are] highly dependent on track forecast.”

  • The storm is already producing dangerous rip current in our area now through early next week.
  • The most likely time of arrival of tropical storm force winds is late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
  • Potential for hurricane force winds, power outages, downed trees.
  • Storm surge inundation possible along the coast and local sounds/rivers.
  •  An increasing threat for tornadoes. Localized heavy rain possible but storm motion may limit overall threat.

As for the current status of the storm, this is the information from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. on Aug. 1

At 8 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Isaias was located about 20 miles (30 km) east of Andros Island and about 50 miles (85 km) south of Nassau. It’s moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).

A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over Andros Island in the Northwestern Bahamas this morning and continue to move near or over the rest of Northwestern Bahamas later today, and move near the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time.

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