NOAA predicts above-average Atlantic hurricane season, 6-10 hurricanes

By on May 24, 2022

(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (NOAA)

On May 24, NOAA released this prediction of a hurricane season likely to be a busy one.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.” 

The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.

An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest-lived hurricanes during most seasons. The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.

 

 

 




Comments

  • David Smith

    Time to make sure my generator is ready.

    Tuesday, May 24 @ 1:57 pm
  • Bill

    Time to retire and get away from the coast. 30+ years of this is enough. When the Big One finally wipes this place off the map I don’t want to be anywhere near here.

    Tuesday, May 24 @ 8:49 pm
  • Steven

    Always look forward to these swells.
    And evacuations of course..
    Surf!

    Wednesday, May 25 @ 5:48 am
  • Wondering

    Every year the same thing, a prediction for “above average” hurricanes. When is the last time they predicted a below average season? We may as well just expect a lot of hurricanes every single year.

    Wednesday, May 25 @ 6:06 pm