At Manteo forum, storm experts say not to take Category 1 hurricanes lightly

By Maggie Miles | Outer Banks Voice on August 25, 2023

Hurricane Matthew was cited as a Category 1 storm that did significant damage. (File photo credit: Vibeke Lavan)

With the area on the cusp of peak storm season, Dare County Emergency Management Director Drew Pearson, Erik Heden, Local Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the National Weather Service, and Carl Barnes, Lead Meteorologist for the National Weather Service, held a local Hurricane Preparedness Forum at the Dare County Emergency Operations Center in Manteo on Wednesday, Aug. 23.

The forum also comes about two weeks after an update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center that doubled the likelihood of an-above normal 203 Atlantic hurricane season from the 30% predicted in May to 60% now.

“The goal of this event was to educate residents, businesses, and anyone who attended on tropical events and anything they need to do to get ready,” Pearson told the Voice in an interview after the forum.

At the forum, the presenters explained that while tropical storms can occur anytime between May and November, the peak of the season lies around Sept. 10. The speakers informed attendees that the time to prepare is now.

According to the presentations, which featured graphs showing each hurricane by category in the area since 1842, the Category 1 storm has been the most commonly occurring, followed closely by Category 2 storms. A Category 1 is the least powerful level, characterized by 74-95 mph winds that will “produce some damage.” Category 5 is the most dangerous, with winds that could reach speeds of 157 mph or higher and cause “catastrophic damage.”

But Heden and Barnes urged attendees not to focus too much on the category ranking as it is based only on wind, without taking into account factors such as storm surge, heavy rains and flash flooding. Many people make the mistake of shrugging off a Category 1, but Heden demonstrated the impact of such a storm by showing a photo of a large boat that had floated into a yard and was left leaning against a building.

According to their presentation, Ophelia (2005), Irene (2011), Matthew (2016), Florence (2018) and TS Hermine (2016), which were all historic storms causing significant damage, were all Cat 1 hurricanes. Between 2010 and 2020, 185 deaths and $185 billion in damage were caused by Category 1 hurricanes in the U.S.

The experts explained that water accounts for 90% of direct hurricane deaths, mostly due to vehicle-related flooding, so he urged residents to assess their own risk using multiple factors. The first is to consider threats as it pertains to storm surge, flooding from heavy rain, strong winds, tornados, and rip currents.

Pearson broke it down into seven steps. Once the risk is assessed, he says it’s important to then develop an evacuation plan, assemble disaster supplies, secure an insurance check-up, strengthen your home, help your neighbors (Do you have neighbors with special needs?), and complete a written hurricane plan.

Pearson pointed out some local resources like OBXAlerts, which the public can sign up for at obxalerts.com, and county wide emergency notifications by texting DAREEMERGENCYALERTS to 77295. You can also go on your mobile device and turn on government alerts in your settings to receive IPAWS alerts, FEMA’s national system for local alerting.

The presenters shared many risks that the public tends to downplay, including the post-impact period of the hurricane. They explained that this is a common misconception, with 50% of fatalities occurring after the storm is over—usually due to heart attacks, issues relating to loss of electricity, and accidents during cleanup. The older population is disproportionately affected during this period, with eight times as many victims over the age of 60 as those under 21.

River flooding can also last weeks to months after flooding, Heden noted, citing hurricane Matthew in 2016 which brought devastating flooding to much of N.C., with river levels peaking an entire week after the storm, closing many major roadways, and leaving businesses and residents inundated.

Perhaps the most overlooked risk regarding hurricanes, the presenters cautioned, are rip currents and dangerous surf, explaining that even distant hurricanes produce strong swells and dangerous rip currents.

An example of this was hurricane Lorenzo in 2019. After the hurricane had passed well out to sea, it sent powerful swells to the Carolinas, creating strong rip currents and dangerous surf conditions that resulted in a total of eight Lorenzo-related surf deaths on the East Coast, with four of those being in the Carolinas.

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